Spatial Concentration of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Indianapolis: An Application of the Law of Crime Concentration at Place to a Public Health Epidemic

The law of crime concentration at place has become a criminological axiom and the foundation for one of the strongest evidence-based policing strategies to date. Using longitudinal data from three sources, emergency medical service calls, death toxicology reports from the Marion County (Indiana) Coroner’s Office, and police crime data, we provide four unique contributions to this literature. First, this study provides the first spatial concentration estimation of opioid-related deaths. Second, our findings support the spatial concentration of opioid deaths and the feasibility of this approach for public health incidents often outside the purview of traditional policing. Third, we find that opioid overdose death hot spots spatially overlap with areas of concentrated violence. Finally, we apply a recent method, corrected Gini coefficient, to best specify low-N incident concentrations and propose a novel method for improving upon a shortcoming of this approach. Implications for research and interventions are discussed

Bradford and Winthrop: Different Approaches to Colonial New England

Environmental historians usually discuss American colonists as if they were all the same. Thus, the Puritan communities that grew rapidly after John Winthrop\u27s arrival in 1630 often overshadow the earlier Separatist colony at Plymouth, which leads to the assumption that all settlers acted in similar ways with regard to land use and the environment. By analyzing Bradford and Winthrop, it becomes possible to see a different picture of colonization in New England. It becomes evident that deforestation happened over time, and in spite of early resistance. It is also clear that colonial settlers viewed resources in different ways. The authorities strictly regulated land use and ownership, but there were fewer restrictions on exportable resources like fur and later timber. Population change and the growth of a proto-capitalist market in the post-1630 Puritan communities as well as a gradual shift from communalism to individualism led to deforestation in New England

Bradford and Winthrop: Different Approaches to Colonial New England

Environmental historians usually discuss American colonists as if they were all the same. Thus, the Puritan communities that grew rapidly after John Winthrop\u27s arrival in 1630 often overshadow the earlier Separatist colony at Plymouth, which leads to the assumption that all settlers acted in similar ways with regard to land use and the environment. By analyzing Bradford and Winthrop, it becomes possible to see a different picture of colonization in New England. It becomes evident that deforestation happened over time, and in spite of early resistance. It is also clear that colonial settlers viewed resources in different ways. The authorities strictly regulated land use and ownership, but there were fewer restrictions on exportable resources like fur and later timber. Population change and the growth of a proto-capitalist market in the post-1630 Puritan communities as well as a gradual shift from communalism to individualism led to deforestation in New England

Controlled Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in statistics and related fields; e.g. for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state space models, and in complex static models. Like many Monte Carlo sampling schemes, they rely on proposal distributions which crucially impact their performance. We introduce here a class of controlled sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, where the proposal distributions are determined by approximating the solution to an associated optimal control problem using an iterative scheme. This method builds upon a number of existing algorithms in econometrics, physics, and statistics for inference in state space models, and generalizes these methods so as to accommodate complex static models. We provide a theoretical analysis concerning the fluctuation and stability of this methodology that also provides insight into the properties of related algorithms. We demonstrate significant gains over state-of-the-art methods at a fixed computational complexity on a variety of applications

"Valuing the Visual Disamenity of Offshore Wind Projects at Varying Distances from the Shore: An Application on the Delaware Shoreline"

Several offshore wind power projects are under consideration in the United States. A concern with any wind power project is the visual disamenity it may create. Using a stated preference choice model, we estimated the external costs to residents of the State of Delaware for offshore wind turbines located at different distances from the coast. The annual costs to inland residents was $19,$9, $1, and$0 (2006$) for turbines located at 1, 3.6, 6, and 9 miles offshore. The cost to residents living on the ocean was$80, $69,$35, and $27 for the same increments.Windfarms, View Disamenity, Valuation

The Sorting Index and Permutation Codes

In the combinatorial study of the coefficients of a bivariate polynomial that generalizes both the length and the reflection length generating functions for finite Coxeter groups, Petersen introduced a new Mahonian statistic $sor$, called the sorting index. Petersen proved that the pairs of statistics $(sor,cyc)$ and $(inv,rl\textrm{-}min)$ have the same joint distribution over the symmetric group, and asked for a combinatorial proof of this fact. In answer to the question of Petersen, we observe a connection between the sorting index and the B-code of a permutation defined by Foata and Han, and we show that the bijection of Foata and Han serves the purpose of mapping $(inv,rl\textrm{-}min)$ to $(sor,cyc)$. We also give a type $B$ analogue of the Foata-Han bijection, and we derive the quidistribution of $(inv_B,{\rm Lmap_B},{\rm Rmil_B})$ and $(sor_B,{\rm Lmap_B},{\rm Cyc_B})$ over signed permutations. So we get a combinatorial interpretation of Petersen's equidistribution of $(inv_B,nmin_B)$ and $(sor_B,l_B')$. Moreover, we show that the six pairs of set-valued statistics $\rm (Cyc_B,Rmil_B)$, $\rm(Cyc_B,Lmap_B)$, $\rm(Rmil_B,Lmap_B)$, $\rm(Lmap_B,Rmil_B)$, $\rm(Lmap_B,Cyc_B)$ and $\rm(Rmil_B,Cyc_B)$ are equidistributed over signed permutations. For Coxeter groups of type $D$, Petersen showed that the two statistics $inv_D$ and $sor_D$ are equidistributed. We introduce two statistics $nmin_D$ and $\tilde{l}_D'$ for elements of $D_n$ and we prove that the two pairs of statistics $(inv_D,nmin_D)$ and $(sor_D,\tilde{l}_D')$ are equidistributed.Comment: 25 page